AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
President Trump appeared at the LIV Golf tournament at his Doral Resort before going to Mar-a-Lago this weekend. LIV is backed by Saudi Arabia's government, and it's to Saudi Arabia that Trump will make his first international trip of this term. Saudi Arabia was also the first overseas trip of his first term back in May of 2017. Dalia Dassa Kaye is an expert on Middle East policy. She's with UCLA's Burkle Center for International Relations, and she joins us now. Welcome to the program.
DALIA DASSA KAYE: Thank you so much.
RASCOE: President Trump had good relations with Saudi Arabia in his first term. Although, things did sour a little when the U.S. didn't rush to Saudi Arabia's defense after two of its oil facilities were attacked by Yemen's Houthis. Where do things stand now?
KAYE: Well, I think that President Trump is going to find a welcoming kingdom. There's a lot of positive views towards this administration. As you said, the previous visit was a major event. But as you said, there are points of friction, and the president will find a different set of Saudi priorities and a different region than was the case in 2017. I think, in particular, the areas some tension could potentially be the question of oil prices, especially with the economic turmoil from the Trump tariffs, but also potential conflicts when it comes to military conflict with Iran and, of course, the ongoing war in Gaza.
RASCOE: The president has also named Saudi Arabia as a host for a potential meeting between himself and Putin as part of the negotiations to end Russia's war with Ukraine. What's Saudi's role in that?
KAYE: Well, that's another part of the changing landscape now. The Saudis have really positioned themselves as a mediator, not just in regional conflicts but globally. And it's part of putting Saudi on the map, which Trump, in fact, has bolstered with his own policies that have been very supportive of Saudi Arabia and Mohammed Bin Salman, the crown prince in particular. So I think that the Saudis have been able to position themselves because they've been pursuing a policy. Some call it positive neutrality, but they're viewed as a relatively neutral player because while they were opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and supported humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and helped facilitate prisoner exchanges and so forth, they've also not broken ties with Putin, with Russia in terms of sanctions. They've maintained diplomatic relations. Saudi Arabia has even hosted Putin. So they are viewed as a power that can work between both the U.S. and Russia and Russia and Ukraine.
RASCOE: This visit will also come close to the deadline he's given Iran for negotiating a new nuclear deal. Obviously, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had an adversarial relationship in the past. But what role might Saudi play in that?
KAYE: Well, that is a really interesting area, because, as you say, they have been traditional rivals. Back on, you know, the president's first trip to Saudi Arabia, they were very much in conflict. But what's changed and significantly is that, especially since the 2019 attack you referenced, the Saudis have taken a different approach and have really tried to de-escalate tensions, not just with Iran but in the entire neighborhood - moving out of the war in Yemen, actively trying to mediate ceasefire efforts there, and most significantly engaging in their own rapprochement and restoration of ties with the Iranians that as dated from March of 2023.
So now they are positioned to play some role, given their very close ties, personal ties with President Trump, and their ability to engage the Iranians. I think there's still a lot of mistrust between the Saudis and Iranians, so it's not clear the Saudis will be the best mediator. The, you know, traditional facilitators, like the Omanis, are likely to still play a role. And most critically, the Saudis very much do not want to see a nuclear-armed Iran. So the goals are shared widely in the region, that nobody wants to see Iran's current civilian nuclear program, which is very worrying in terms of its advanced state right now. Nobody wants to see that turn into a weaponized program.
RASCOE: We've talked a little bit about how things are different in the region now. Israel's war in Gaza is a huge difference with - now. Does that affect this meeting at all?
KAYE: Absolutely. In fact, it might be one of the most serious points of friction that could emerge. I mean, let's just, you know, be clear that this trip, you know, the first priority on President Trump's agenda is going to be economic. You know, he's talked about not just a $600 million Saudi investment in the U.S. economy, but now he's going up to a $1 trillion figure. So a lot of the motivations for this trip are based on economic investment, arms sales and so forth. But just like the Iran issue we discussed, the continuing Gaza war now that it's resumed and Israeli airstrikes are happening daily now, humanitarian aid is blocked, the Saudis have shown a very, very strong interest in ending this war and a two-state solution. This is an area where it could be a gap that emerges because the Gaza plans that Trump has talked about, which would be an illegal, you know, displacement of Palestinians, 2 million Palestinians from Gaza and try to settle them elsewhere, that's a nonstarter for the Saudis and other Arab powers.
RASCOE: That's Dalia Dassa Kaye, who's with UCLA's Burkle Center of International Relations. Thanks so much for speaking with us today.
KAYE: Thank you for having me, Ayesha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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