MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Myanmar's state-run media has announced a temporary ceasefire effective immediately in the country's civil war with groups opposed to the military running the government. The military junta had initially rejected calls for a ceasefire but is now agreeing to stop fighting, it says, to help the relief effort following last Friday's 7.7 magnitude earthquake. More than 3,000 died in the quake, according to Myanmar's government, but that number is expected to grow. Reporter Michael Sullivan has been keeping up with this from neighboring Thailand. He's with us now. Hello again, Michael.
MICHAEL SULLIVAN, BYLINE: Hi, Michel.
MARTIN: So that's quite a turnaround for the military, isn't it?
SULLIVAN: Yeah, a big turnaround. I mean, just hours after the quake struck, the military conducted airstrikes against opposition targets in both Karen and Shan states in the east of the country. And on Tuesday, an airstrike in Kachin state in the north killed 38 people, according to the main rebel group there. Now, it's easy to see all of these attacks as incredibly cruel and cynical. But there's also another explanation, according to the International Crisis Group's senior Myanmar adviser, Richard Horsey, and that's that the military is scared.
RICHARD HORSEY: They are terrified that they will lose even more if they give an inch to their opponents, who are beating them on the battlefield.
SULLIVAN: Now the change of heart came after several major opposition groups announced their own ceasefire, so that may have been a factor. And the military may also have been influenced by international pressure, maybe even from their patron China. But there could also be another quake-related reason. Here's Richard Horsey again.
HORSEY: It will be seen not only as some sort of karmic message, but also the devastation has been wrought on their core centers of power - you know, the capital, the second biggest city, which is the center of Buddhism in Myanmar. The monasteries lie in ruins. It's their power base that's been disproportionately hit by this. If they mess this up, the impact will be felt by their inner circle.
SULLIVAN: So some of the leadership's calculation might simply be about regime survival.
MARTIN: But could a weeklong ceasefire or a weekslong ceasefire mean that those who need help will actually get it?
SULLIVAN: We don't know because stopping airstrikes is one thing, right? Allowing unfettered access for aid is another. The military's checkpoints and restrictions on cell and internet service were extremely tight even before the quake and remain so. And a Chinese relief team traveling by road from the border was shot at by the military in Shan state on Tuesday. No one was hurt. But still, I mean, the military has really messed with aid distribution since the coup. Here's Melissa Hein of the World Food Programme in Yangon.
MELISSA HEIN: The operating environment is complex. That has been the case for the past four years, responding to people displaced by conflict. So I expect those challenges will continue.
SULLIVAN: She and others say there's an urgent need for shelter, food and clean water and for money for international donations to distribute it. There's a lot of it that's already been stockpiled in warehouses in Myanmar, but it takes trucks and gas and money to deliver it, yeah?
MARTIN: Yeah. So let me go back to this idea of the military trying to hang on. In the past year and a half, the opposition has been hammering the junta on the battlefield, and there were questions about whether it could survive. So what's the assessment of that now?
SULLIVAN: Well, oddly, this might actually help the regime hang on longer. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing agreeing to a ceasefire and international aid may actually raise his credibility in an international community that's shunned him and sanctioned Myanmar since the coup. Again, here's the International Crisis Group's Richard Horsey.
HORSEY: The regime still has some battlefield breathing space, but not a lot. It's losing in the north to the Kachin. It's spectacularly losing in the west to the Arakan Army. So this is a moment of jeopardy. It's a moment of great uncertainty. But it isn't a moment, I think, where we could have any confidence in saying the regime is about to fall.
SULLIVAN: That's been predicted many times before, and it hasn't happened yet.
MARTIN: That's Michael Sullivan in Thailand. Michael, thank you.
SULLIVAN: You're welcome.
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