MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
President Trump says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected in Washington, D.C., tomorrow to sign a preliminary deal for some of Ukraine's most valuable resources, including rare earth minerals. Zelenskyy has asked for security guarantees for his country in exchange. Trump said yesterday that the deal doesn't come with any, but Ukraine should still be pleased.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's a great thing. It's a great deal for Ukraine, too, because they get us over there, and we're going to be working over there. We'll be on the land, and, you know, in that way, it's - there's sort of automatic security 'cause nobody's going to be messing around with our people when we're there.
MARTIN: We wondered why these minerals are so important, so our colleague Leila Fadel spoke with Gracelin Baskaran, who directs the Critical Mineral Security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
GRACELIN BASKARAN: Rare earths are the bedrock of national security, economic, competitiveness and energy resilience. So rare earths are used in almost every form of defense technology - missiles, lasers, warships, fighter jets, munitions. They're also used in renewable energy. They're a core part of things like wind turbines. Now, we're facing increasing demand for rare earths, but the real driver of a lot of this foreign policy is because we are currently so reliant on China.
China processes about 90% of the world's rare earths, and they've already shown a demonstrated track record of weaponizing them. Back in 2010, China and Japan got into a dispute over a fishing trawler, and China cut off exports of rare earths to Japan over it. And, you know, the U.S. is really doubling down in trying to find alternate supplies in rare earths because of how significant that dependence in is at the forefront.
LEILA FADEL, BYLINE: And is the U.S. trying to develop any of that here in the United States?
BASKARAN: Yes. So we have Mountain Pass, which is a rare earth mine out west. But the big chokehold for the United States is actually not sourcing the rocks out of the ground. It's that processing that China has 90% capabilities of. And in the last five years, the United States has spent over $300 million through the Defense Production Act to build processing facilities here at home in the U.S. So we're currently building in California. We're currently building in Texas. And for, like, the heavy rare earths facility in Texas, it will really be the first major facility outside of China.
FADEL: OK. So let's talk about Ukraine in that context. How extensive are their mineral deposits, and how far that - will they go toward meeting U.S. needs?
BASKARAN: So Ukraine has natural resources - there's no doubt. They have minerals, oil and gas. And they have a range of minerals - uranium, coal, rare earths. What we don't know - because geological mapping of Ukraine, the most recent one was done about 30 to 60 years ago by the Soviet Union - is which of those deposits are economically viable to mine. We don't have that level of data. So first, there has to be a mapping. Then it takes on average globally from that time I know exactly what my deposit is, 18 years to develop a mine. Mining is a generational effort, and we're very much at the start of a generation.
FADEL: And so how much does this agreement when it is or if it is done between the United States and Ukraine? How much does it matter? Is it meaningful?
BASKARAN: It's probably less meaningful than the attention it's getting. And the reason is because it's such a long-term effort, No. 1, that we are not going to have a producing mine because of this deal in the next four years. Mining outlives electoral cycles. That's No. 1. I think the second big thing is the private sector is the only determinant of whether this agreement yields anything at all. Given that the average mine and separation plant costs 500 million to a billion dollars, that's a big ask, especially considering the risk of Russia next door.
FADEL: Gracelin Baskaran, thank you so much for your time.
BASKARAN: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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